Solar Maximum 2026 and Anatolia's 1700-Year Aurora History: Prof. Nafiz Maden Catalogs the Lost Memory

Anatolia sits geophysically at 40-42° north latitude — well below the 65-75° polar oval that hosts the aurora's "natural home." Yet from 333 AD onwards, this geography is dotted with chronicles describing "fire in the sky," "bloody spear," and "luminous columns." Prof. Dr. Nafiz Maden, head of the Geophysics Engineering Department at Gümüşhane University, turned this silent memory into a book through 10 years of research begun in 2016: "The Dance of Northern Lights in Anatolia" (Gece Kitaplığı, May 28, 2025, 134 pages).

I am writing this for two reasons: (1) Solar Cycle 25 peaked in October 2024 (smoothed sunspot number = 160.8, the highest since 2008), with high activity continuing through 2026; (2) in May 2024, the first Turkish aurora photographs were distributed worldwide by Anadolu Agency from Trabzon Ortahisar — during the strongest G5/G4 geomagnetic storm in 20 years. Maden's historical archive is no longer academic curiosity; it is an operational guide: Anatolia has seen aurora repeatedly across 1700 years, and Turkey is in the visibility window again in 2026.

This piece walks through three things: a tour of Anatolia's 21 historical aurora records (333 AD Constantinople to 1143 Edessa); the solar physics state of Solar Maximum 2026 (X8.1 flare on Feb 1, X2.5 flare on Apr 24); and a practical aurora-chase guide for Turkey. Maden's book is more than astronomy — it is a sharp rebuttal to the claim that "Turks have made history but not written it."

Prof. Dr. Nafiz Maden and "The Dance of Northern Lights in Anatolia"

Prof. Dr. Nafiz Maden heads the Geophysics Engineering Department at Gümüşhane University. In 2020, he published the peer-reviewed Annales Geophysicae paper "Historical Aurora Borealis catalog for Anatolia and Constantinople" (hABcAC) (DOI: 10.5194/angeo-38-889-2020). The work systematically compiled 21 distinct Anatolian/Constantinople aurora records between 1 — 1453 AD, plus 40 additional Middle East records from the same era.

This 10-year-since-2016 effort reached the broader public on May 28, 2025: the 134-page "The Dance of Northern Lights in Anatolia" from Gece Kitaplığı, a Turkish-language reconstruction of the catalog for popular readers. Cities covered: Istanbul, Urfa, Antakya, Diyarbakır, Adana, Tokat, Erzurum, Elazığ, Ankara, Balıkesir, Kastamonu, İzmir, Sinop, Rize, Gümüşhane, Trabzon. The list is not random; each was historically a Byzantine, Seljuk, or Ottoman record-keeping center.

One story Maden emphasized in his January 30, 2026 Gümüşhane interview: on January 26, 1938, a major aurora was widely seen across Europe. Kandilli Observatory director Fatin Gökmen declared, "This is an extraordinary natural phenomenon and cannot be seen in Turkey." Yet on the same date, residents of Kelkit (Gümüşhane) watched the event; the news was published in the Erzurum-based Doğu Gazetesi on February 4, 1938. In the subsequent 1940 event, observations came from Hamsiköy, Torul, Kelkit, Bayburt, Şebinkarahisar, Tokat, Elazığ, Gümüşhane; in Maçka (Trabzon), telephone exchanges spontaneously failed — Turkey's earliest documented infrastructure evidence of geomagnetically induced current (GIC).

"This study is a strong rebuttal to the entrenched perception that 'Turks have made history rather than written it.' That records of mid-latitude aurora observations appear in Ottoman archives across nearly every century is an important scientific and cultural heritage reflecting Turkish sensitivity to celestial events and a tradition of record-keeping."

The 21 Historical Records — From 333 AD Constantinople to 1143 Edessa

Table 2 of Maden's 2020 Annales Geophysicae paper forms the backbone of the Anatolia/Constantinople catalog. The earliest record: 333 AD, Constantinople — Roman historian Aurelius Victor (320–390) describes "Sky fire." Highlights:

The Byzantine source diversity is notable: Aurelius Victor (Rome), Theophanes (Byzantine monk, 758/760-817), Joshua the Stylite (Syriac), Ptolomaeus Lucensis (Historia Ecclesiastica), and Andreasyan (Armenian chronicler). The 1097-1143 cluster aligns with the Medieval Grand Maximum — a peak of solar activity reflected in European records too.

The 774/775 Extreme Solar Particle Event: Maden's Diyarbakır 771/772 and June 773 entries fall within the time window of an extreme solar particle event confirmed by cosmogenic isotope evidence (Be-10/Cl-36 ratios, C-14 spike) in Miyake et al. (2012), Mekhaldi et al. (2015), and Büntgen et al. (2018). Anatolian records are not just anecdotal — they overlap with physical measurements.

The Ottoman link: Byzantine historian Kritovulos recorded fecr-i şimali at Mehmet the Conqueror's birth (1432) and accession (1444/1451); aurora observations also exist before the conquest of Constantinople (1453). The "blood-red sky" legend of the conquest is not pure narrative; it overlaps with geophysical data.

Solar Cycle 25 and the Numbers for 2026

Solar Cycle 25 (SC25) peaked in October 2024 with a smoothed monthly sunspot number of 160.8. That figure clearly exceeded the original SC25 Panel forecast (115) but came in below SC23 (180.3). Source: SIDC/SILSO, Brussels. Magnetic polar reversal occurred in 2023, marking the cycle's second half.

Confirmed 2026 X-Class Solar Flares (NASA SDO):

• February 1, 2026, 6:37 p.m. ET — X8.1 (the year's strongest, far stronger than X4.2)
• February 1, 2026 — X1.0 (7:33 a.m. ET) and X2.8 (7:36 p.m. ET)
• February 2, 2026, 3:14 a.m. ET — X1.6
• April 23, 2026, 9:07 p.m. ET — X2.4
• April 24, 2026, 4:13 a.m. ET — X2.5

NASA's April 24, 2026 statement: "Solar flares are powerful bursts of energy. Flares and solar eruptions can impact radio communications, electric power grids, navigation signals, and pose risks to spacecraft and astronauts." Practical implication for Turkey: the G3-G4 geomagnetic storm window is open through May-June 2026; with the right CME orientation, aurora can descend to Anatolian latitude.

May 10-11, 2024 — From Trabzon Ortahisar, Turkey's First Modern Aurora

On the night of May 10-11, 2024, NOAA called the storm "the strongest in 20 years" — a G5/G4 geomagnetic event from Active Region 3664, a sunspot complex 16× the diameter of Earth. The aurora descended to unusual latitudes worldwide: U.S. southern states, Spain, Greece, even Egypt.

Confirmed Turkish observation: Trabzon Ortahisar. Anadolu Agency photos ran on Habertürk and Milliyet front pages — the first high-quality documented aurora images in modern Turkish Republic history. Maden's 1700-year catalog finally met the first event modern photography could verify.

Important caveats: Milliyet's coverage of May 2024 referenced sightings at "several points" of Turkey, but specific cities like Istanbul, Iğdır, or Erzurum were not verified in the mainstream record found within this research window — observations beyond Trabzon remain at amateur photography level. The October 2024 G4 storm's Turkey-specific reporting was also not verified for this article; further research is needed.

Aurora-Chase Guide for Turkey — Where, When, How

Throughout Solar Maximum 2025-2027, the aurora window over Anatolia is open. My practical guide:

1. Geography: Highest magnetic latitude in Turkey runs through the Eastern Black Sea and Eastern Anatolia — Trabzon, Rize, Artvin, Iğdır, Kars, Erzurum, Ardahan. Maden's 1940 records (Hamsiköy, Torul, Kelkit, Bayburt) confirm this corridor. Get away from city lights; aim for Bortle 2-3 sky.
2. Timing: Watch NOAA's 3-day forecast page and the Kp index. Anatolia needs Kp ≥ 7 (G3 storm); Kp = 8 (G4) brings the Istanbul-Ankara line into reach; Kp = 9 (G5) extends visibility to the Mediterranean coast.
3. Cameras: Aurora often appears "pale gray/pink" to the naked eye; modern smartphone night modes (iPhone 15 Pro+, Samsung S24+, Pixel 8 Pro) capture clear green/red. ISO 1600-3200, f/1.8, 5-10 sec exposure.
4. Alerts: Spaceweather.com, Aurora Forecast (University of Tromsø), SpaceWeatherLive apps. NOAA SWPC SMS alerts for G3+ are free.
5. Historical clue (Maden): Infrastructure signals similar to Maçka 1940 phone failures may surface today as TURKSAT GPS accuracy loss and TEİAŞ transformer warnings. If those signals appear, count that night as a high-aurora chance.

Practical Risks of Solar Maximum 2026 for Turkey

Aurora beauty aside, the harsh side of geomagnetic storms is real. The 1989 Quebec Blackout dropped 6 million people into 9 hours of darkness — caused by a single G5 storm. Numerical risks for Turkey:

• TURKSAT & satellite services: CME passage causes meter-level GPS errors and forces orbit corrections. TURKSAT's official 2026 statement was not surfaced in this research; but operations teams are expected to be actively monitoring.
• TEİAŞ / power grid: High-voltage transformers (especially those on long transmission lines) are sensitive to GIC. The 1940 Maçka telephone exchange collapse is Turkey's earliest documented GIC effect — modern grids are more sensitive but more closely monitored.
• Aviation: Polar routes (Europe to U.S. west coast) may divert due to high radiation and HF radio loss. Turkish Airlines' Anchorage and Toronto routes fall within potential impact.
• Communications: Short-wave radio (HF) and trans-polar ham radio channels go dark in G3+ storms. Emergency amateur radio operators need an alternate frequency plan.

My recommendation: Establish an "Anatolia Space Weather Citizen Observation Network" through Solar Maximum 2026 — formal coordination among TÜBİTAK National Observatory (Bakırlıtepe, Antalya), Atatürk University Astrophysics Center (Erzurum), and amateur astronomy associations. Maden's catalog is the foundation; every new record should join the registry.

Conclusion and a 30/60/90-Day Aurora Window

Anatolia has been talking to the sky for 1700 years. From 333 AD to 1143, 21 documented aurora observations; then 1432 at Mehmet's birth, 1453 before the conquest, 1938 in Kelkit, 1940 in Maçka, 2024 in Trabzon Ortahisar — the line continues unbroken. Maden's achievement is translating that silent line into the language of science.

30/60/90-day forecasts:

• 30 days (May 2026): NASA SSN forecast = 100.4 — high-activity window open. After the May equinox, every 27-day solar rotation carries a 15-20% chance of a G3+ storm. The most probable Anatolian aurora month: May 2026.
• 60 days (June-July 2026): No "second peak" of solar maximum is expected, but with 24-48 hour CME transit, a chance for aurora persists every clear night. Turkish-based amateur astronomy groups will increase image production.
• 90 days (August 2026): Activity slowly trends down (SSN ~95). The G3+ storm window remains open into early 2027. A second edition of Maden's book — expanded with 2024-2026 modern observations — is a strong probability.

One-line take: Anatolia is no stranger to northern lights — only the last century of urbanization and light pollution drove us away from the sky. Maden's book reminds us; Solar Maximum 2026 is the chance to reconnect. Add an Eastern Black Sea mountain-village night camp to your 2026 travel plans.

What do you think? Did you see or photograph aurora from Turkey in May 2024? Which city, what time? Share in the comments — we are building a collective Turkish aurora archive.